Summary
The Government of Syria offensive to retake Sheikh Miskine has been ongoing since November 2015.
Following the first notable government gains, to the north of Sheikh Miskine in November, the vast majority of the towns’ inhabitants were displaced. Since late December 2015, shelling and aerial bombing of the villages of Abtaa and Nawa by pro-government forces has also increased, to cut opposition supply routes to the battle front. As a result of the intensification of the battle in January, more than 4,500 new IDPs were displaced from Abtaa and Nawa to villages southwards. A further >14,500 IDPs have been displaced within Abtaa and Nawa municipalities. This brings the displacement due to the battle for Sheikh Miskine during the last two months to >30,000 IDPs in total. As such it is the third largest displacement of the past year in Southern Syria, and increasing.IDPs require first and foremost protection, but also as a priority, food, NFIs (including winterization items), and access to safe and clean water. Having reached such a high number of displaced, shelter in the Western Area of Dar’a will increasingly become a need.
Currently pro-government forces are continuing to expand the reach of their control over Sheikh Miskine City. This marks only the second substantive government advance of the last two years in Southern Syria, and one in which new foreign aerial support is reported to have played an important role. With shelling and aerial bombardment in these areas likely to continue to increase in intensity, further sustained significant displacement South and West is likely.
Situation Overview
Since late December 2015, pro-government forces have intensified shelling and aerial bombing of the villages neighboring Sheikh Miskine -- Abtaa (4km South), Da’el (8km South) and Nawa City (14km West) -- in order to cut off the supply routes of the armed opposition from those communities. Intensified shelling from the half of Sheikh Miskine recently retaken by government forces towards Nawa City and Abtaa has led to substantial casualties. It has therefore lead to the almost complete displacement of the Eastern Quarter of Nawa City as well as half of the population of Abtaa to safer areas within each of those municipalities and their immediately surrounding plains.
Background: The Government of Syria offensive to retake Sheikh Miskine has been ongoing since November 2015. On 14 November 2015 governmental forces took control of parts of the 82nd Division and military housing located 1 km to the North of the city, as well as other fortified areas. Following the first notable government gains to the north of Sheikh Miskine 14 November 2015, the vast majority of the town’s >10,500 inhabitants were displaced. On 28 December 2015 the government campaign was renewed with more than 75 Russian and Syrian airstrikes and barrel bombs targeting the city within a 2-day period. Since then all remaining civilians in Sheikh Miskine have effectively departed.
Outlook: For pro-government forces to seize full control over Sheikh Miskine would likely take some weeks, if it occurs. However if pro-government forces succeed, it will place considerably more of Abtaa, Da’el and Nawa within range of heavy artillery. If pro-government forces do continue to expand and solidify control over Sheikh Miskine, major displacement from Abtaa (up to 23,000 persons), as well a partial displacement from Da’el and/or Nawa is possible. Currently the battle is proceeding in the favor of pro-government forces. On 06 January 2016 the Syrian Arab Army took back its al-Niran Brigade position, cutting the opposition supply and reinforcement route from Nawa. The government advance is only the second of its kind in the past year in the South, and represents the loss of an important strategic position for the armed opposition.